Alibaba Group Holding Stock Performance

BABA Stock  USD 125.49  -0.57  -0.45%   
The company maintains a Beta of 1.39, which signifies elevated sensitivity to broad market movements. Alibaba Group tends to amplify market moves - gaining more in rallies but giving back more during declines. At this point, Alibaba Group Holding has a negative expected return of -0.26%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
For the recent 90-day horizon, Alibaba Group Holding failed to convert risk into positive risk-adjusted performance. Current market capitalization is about 292.24 Billion. Despite unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the stock's fundamental drivers remain somewhat strong, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long term up-swing for the company's investors. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
3
 Five Day Return
-8.93
 Year To Date Return
-19.04
 Ten Year Return
64.68
 All Time Return
34.28
 Forward Dividend Yield
0.0086
 Payout Ratio
0.0511
 Forward Dividend Rate
1.05
 Dividend Date
2025-07-10
 Ex Dividend Date
2025-06-12
Begin Period Cash Flow282.1 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-206.6 B

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 15,006 in Alibaba Group Holding on December 24, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 2,457 from holding Alibaba Group Holding or given up 16.37% of portfolio value over 90 days. Alibaba Group Holding does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 2.7534% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 24% of stocks are less volatile than Alibaba, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Given the investment horizon of 90 days Alibaba Group is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 3.27 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.09 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.1 per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

One of the most enduring patterns in stock markets is the tendency for prices to revert toward averages. This mean-reverting tendency has been a useful forecasting tool, though some stocks exhibit persistent mispricings. The speed of convergence varies because some stocks carry risk factors not immediately reflected in price.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
125.49 90 days 125.49
about 97.0
Applying a normal distribution to this stock, the odds of Alibaba Group moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 97.0 . That suggests recent trading behavior has favored stronger upside scenarios over this horizon. (The probability curve shows the outcome range with the heaviest concentration for Alibaba Stock over 90 days). A tighter center suggests recent price behavior has been clustering into a narrower range for Alibaba Stock.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alibaba Group will likely underperform. Additionally, Alibaba Group Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Alibaba Group Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group

For Alibaba Group Holding, multiple forecasting techniques provide different perspectives on future stock price direction. No method can consistently predict the stock market with certainty, but disciplined forecasting sharpens analysis. Comparing the outputs of diverse models helps set realistic expectations for Alibaba Group Holding price behavior.
Mean reversion analysis in Alibaba Group's involves identifying price extremes that diverge materially from the historical norm. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers anticipating a recovery. Mean reversion in Alibaba Group is distinct from trend following, which rides momentum rather than betting on reversals.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
120.52123.28126.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
111.93144.20146.96
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
118.09120.85123.60
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
174.02191.23212.27
Details
Competitive positioning is a critical dimension of Alibaba Group analysis. Benchmarking Alibaba Group's performance and risk profile against competitors validates any investment thesis. Evaluating Alibaba Group in context means comparing Alibaba Group's against the competitive peer group.

Primary Risk Indicators

The stock market's volatility over the past 10-20 years has tested even experienced investors in Alibaba Group. Large corrections and rapid recoveries have created challenges for investors in Alibaba Group Holding. A disciplined approach to monitoring Alibaba Group's risk indicators supports more effective hedging decisions.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.1367
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.39
σ
Overall volatility
13.87
Ir
Information ratio -0.0614

Investor Alerts and Insights

Monitoring Alibaba Group alerts is a practical approach to staying informed about material stock changes. Reviewing ongoing notifications for Alibaba Group Holding helps identify opportunities and risks before they are fully priced in. Multiple alert categories for Alibaba Group allow investors to focus on the signals most relevant to their strategy.
Alibaba Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alibaba Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Alibaba Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: AI and Cloud Business Robust Growth Offsets Alibaba Group Holding Limited Net Loss Jump

Price Density Drivers

The price of Alibaba Stock is driven by buyer and seller positioning dynamics along with broader market trends. Because market risk indicators may produce small false signals, reviewing multiple metrics is recommended. Understanding Alibaba Group's price drivers helps determine whether movements reflect underlying changes or positioning shifts.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments464.8 B

Alibaba Group Fundamentals Growth

Alibaba Group's financial fundamentals are the foundation of Alibaba Stock market pricing and valuation. Metrics like earnings growth, revenue consistency, and margin trends collectively determine market sentiment toward Alibaba Stock. Alibaba Stock market pricing reflects the collective assessment of Alibaba Group's financial fundamentals.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Alibaba Group performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Past price movements indicate comparatively limited downside dispersion. Alibaba Group shows ROE of 8.23%, ROA of 3.13%.

Data shown for Alibaba Group Holding is aggregated from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized across reporting formats. Where analyst coverage exists, consensus estimates are factored in. Source publication timing can introduce delays. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Vlad Skutelnik - Macroaxis Contributor
Last reviewed on March 22nd, 2026